2025-04-17 ペンシルベニア州立大学(PennState)
＜関連情報＞
- https://www.psu.edu/news/engineering/story/coastal-management-model-plays-long-game-against-rising-tides
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-55679-9
気候変動下における沿岸インフラの最適なライフサイクル適応 Optimal life-cycle adaptation of coastal infrastructure under climate change
Ashmita Bhattacharya,Konstantinos G. Papakonstantinou,Gordon P. Warn,Lauren McPhillips,Melissa M. Bilec,Chris E. Forest,Rahaf Hasan & Digant Chavda
Nature Communications Published:27 January 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-55679-9
Abstract
Climate change-related risk mitigation is typically addressed using cost-benefit analysis that evaluates mitigation strategies against a wide range of simulated scenarios and identifies a static policy to be implemented, without considering future observations. Due to the substantial uncertainties inherent in climate projections, this identified policy will likely be sub-optimal with respect to the actual climate trajectory that evolves in time. In this work, we thus formulate climate risk management as a dynamic decision-making problem based on Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and Partially Observable MDPs (POMDPs), taking real-time data into account for evaluating the evolving conditions and related model uncertainties, in order to select the best possible life-cycle actions in time, with global optimality guarantees for the formulated optimization problem. The framework is developed for coastal adaptation applications, considering a wide variety of possible action types, including various forms of nature-based infrastructure. Related environmental impacts of carbon emissions and uptake are also incorporated, and social cost of carbon implications are discussed, together with several future directions and supported features.
