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気候変動がダムに与える影響を事例で解明(“In the future, dams will serve a variety of purposes”)

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2025-10-09 スイス連邦工科大学ローザンヌ校(EPFL)

EPFLの土木工学者ジョヴァンニ・デ・チェザレ氏は、スイス・ヴァレー州グリースダムを事例に、気候変動がダム運用に及ぼす影響を分析した。氷河融解、降雪減少、干ばつ増加により、2100年までに流入水量が約30%減少する見通し。ダムは今後、水力発電だけでなく人工降雪、農業、水資源、冷却用途など多目的に利用される必要があると指摘した。堆積物の蓄積で貯水能力が低下しており、再整備と水資源配分の国家戦略策定が急務とされる。研究はAGU Booksに掲載。

気候変動がダムに与える影響を事例で解明(“In the future, dams will serve a variety of purposes”)The Gries glacier and dam in 2020. © Andrea Baumer

<関連情報>

気候変動による高山の水力発電用貯水池の堆積:最初に消滅するのは氷河か、貯水池か? Sedimentation of a High Alpine Hydropower Reservoir Under Climate Change: What Will Disappear First, the Glacier or the Reservoir?

Giovanni De Cesare
AGU Books  Published: 26 September 2025
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/9781394216727.ch4

Summary

Glacier retreat in the Alps has progressed dramatically since the 1980s as a result of climate change and will be even more pronounced in the future. Consequently, flow regimes and sediment yield from watersheds will change significantly. Reservoirs are exposed to continuous sedimentation, reducing storage volume and posing exploitation and security risks. This chapter is primarily based on a literature review of the Gries watershed (currently mostly glacier-covered above 2,400 m asl), including the reservoir, glacier, and dam. The length of the Gries Glacier has been recorded since 1847, and annual mass balance data have been available since 1961. Future glacier evolution models, coupled with a hydrological model that considers global warming, predict that the length of the glacier will continue to decline, such that by around 2060, the entire catchment will be virtually glacier-free. Runoff and erosion will shift to a pluvio-nival regime, and associated water resources will become less reliable. Past surveys of sediment yield and reservoir sedimentation allow the characterization of reservoir sedimentation patterns, which are dominated by plunging turbidity currents. Sustainable sedimentation management measures will preserve the reservoir’s storage volume, safety, and economic operability beyond the disappearance of the glacier.

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