この種のデータセットとしては初めて、将来の洪水リスクを近隣レベルで示す(First of its kind dataset shows future flooding risk at neighborhood level)


2023-09-28 アルゴンヌ国立研究所(ANL)




アンサンブルWRF-Hydroシミュレーションを用いた21世紀半ばにおける米国北東部の極端な河川流量と内陸洪水の変化予測 Projected changes in extreme streamflow and inland flooding in the mid-21st century over Northeastern United States using ensemble WRF-Hydro simulations

Sujan Pal, Jiali Wang, Jeremy Feinstein, Eugene Yan, Veerabhadra Rao Kotamarthi

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies  Available online: 31 March 2023




•Continental-scale decadal high-resolution WRF-Hydro simulations were performed.

•Extreme value analysis and uncertainty quantification were applied to assess risk.

•Extreme river flows in the northeast US are projected to increase in winter months.

•Extreme inland flooding is projected to increase in intensity and spatial extent.

•Evapotranspiration and soil moisture increase while snowpack decreases in the future.


Study region

Northeastern United States (NEUS).

Study focus

We investigate the potential impacts of climate change on precipitation, streamflow, and inland flooding in the NEUS during the mid-21st century. Dynamically downscaled climate projections from three global climate models for historical (1995–2004) and future (2045–2054) periods under business-as-usual scenarios were used to force the hydrologic model WRF-Hydro at 200-meter resolution and create ensemble hydrologic simulations. Additionally, an extreme value model was developed to project the risks associated with low-frequency hydrologic events.

New hydrological insights for the region

Results from four major watersheds indicate a significantly wetter regime in winter months and potential drier conditions during late spring to early summer. Discharges in fall are projected to decrease in the northern watersheds and increase toward the south. Extreme flow and water depths resulting from extreme inland flooding are projected to increase by 5–20% and > 100%, respectively. The extent of the total flooded area is likely to be 20% greater by the mid-century. These increased risks can be attributed to (i) an approximate 25% increase in decadal mean and > 40% increase in decadal extreme precipitation intensity, (ii) up to 30% lower snow availability and 5–25% higher evapotranspiration throughout the year, and (iii) a projected 5% increase in soil moisture in all seasons except summer. Furthermore, rapid snow melting in winter will likely cause an earlier peak flow in the rivers.