2024-12₋17 オランダ・デルフト工科大学 (TUDelft)
＜関連情報＞
- https://www.tudelft.nl/en/2024/citg/the-waal-attracting-increasingly-more-water-a-tipping-point-of-the-rhine-system
- https://www.researchgate.net/publication/386076597_Indications_of_Ongoing_Noise-Tipping_of_a_Bifurcating_River_System
分岐する河川システムの継続的なノイズ転倒の兆候 Indications of Ongoing Noise‐Tipping of a Bifurcating River System
Astrid Blom,Claudia Ylla Arbos,M. Kifayath Chowdhury,Arjen Doelman
Geophysical Research Letters Published:November 2024
DOI:10.1029/2024GL111846
Abstract
Tipping occurs when a critical point is reached, beyond which a perturbation leads to persistent system change. Here, we present observational indications demonstrating presently ongoing noise‐tipping of a real‐world system. Noise in a river system is associated with the changing flow rate. In particular, we consider the upper Rhine River delta, where flow and sediment fluxes are partitioned over the two downstream branches (bifurcates) of an important river bifurcation. Field observations show that a sequence of peak flows in the 1990s resulted in sudden sediment deposition in one bifurcate, triggering a persistent and ongoing change in the flow partitioning. This has caused the system to move toward an alternative equilibrium state or attractor. An idealized model confirms that a river bifurcation system under such conditions is prone to tipping, and provides insight on the onset of tipping.
